Ratifying the climate change pact: Is it too early?
India announced to ratify the Paris agreement on October 2 to show its support for need to contain the rising global warming and the challenges emerging thereafter. However, until G20 in early September 2016, India was not expected to ratify the climate change agreement. Is sudden such change a hasty decision?
- India has agreed to ratify the Paris Agreement-which aims to contain the increase in earth's temperature to 2 degrees Celsius, and if possible 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels.
- Paris agreement materialized at the 21st Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It requires 55 countries accounting for at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions to ratify it in order for it to come into force.
Why sudden announcement?
- India was so far slow in committing to the Paris agreement.
- But, it realised that the ratification threshold is likely to be achieved in October without India's support where it ranks third in global emissions.
- Thus, there could arise a possibility thereafter that India be casted as an obstructionist and hence it understandably changed the track.
But, is it early?
India has to be wary at the negotiating table as -
- Too much focus on incremental pollution by developing countries shifts the public attentionaway from the historical damage done by the developed countries during their years of rapid economic growth.
- The per capita carbon footprint of India is still very low by global standards.
- India needs coal as part of its energy mix right now, until new technologies emerge.
No doubt, by retaining the "common but differentiated responsibilities" clause in the Paris Agreement, the world has acknowledged Indian concerns.
However, this is not enough.
- Doing away with the distinction between developing and developed nations dilutes the differentiation principle which had put the onus on developed countries to take greater responsibility for reducing emissions.
- But, undue pressure is already being exerted on India as one of the largest polluters of the world.
- Though third in terms of total emissions, it ranks 140th globally in terms of per capita emissions.
India and climate change
- The large coastline of India is susceptible to rising sea levels.
- The population is also suffering from the visible consequences of climate change, such as heat waves, pollution and failed monsoons.
- Hence, India could not argue for its right to development beyond a point.
- Therefore, in a calculated move, it embraced the cause of climate change but with a caveat-the availability of global finance and performance of other nations.
- This decision puts onus now on developed countries to fund and transfer technology to developing nations, besides making efforts to meet their domestic commitments.
India and INDC
India's strategy for combating climate change and achieving INDC targets is a multi-pronged one
- It aims at modifying the energy mix to a more sustainable, efficient and renewable one.
- Its plan to expand solar capacity to 100 GW by 2022 from 8 GW in 2016 is expected to make up almost 48% of the renewable energy capacity.
- The International Solar Alliance and the recently unveiled plan to subsidize domestic manufacturers will help but can only be sustained by a higher inflow of funds for solar projects.
- The rest of the renewable energy capacity would be developed through a mixture of wind power, hydropower, biomass, waste to energy and nuclear power.
- Nuclear energy will form less than 4% of these clean energy commitments. Though it is unlikely that India's non-membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group will significantly affect its plans, the membership could have enhanced it.
- However, the issue of renewable energy being less competitive still persists.
- A significant challenge to these plans are fall in oil prices, which increases the opportunity cost of expansion of alternative energy sources. India uses Piguovian taxes as against cap and trade system proposed by countries such as China, to limit emissions.
- India is also making efforts to bring down current greenhouse gas levels through the development of carbon sinks. But this is a difficult task considering the land-scarcity problem.
Conclusion
- The 14th Finance Commission made forest cover one of the criteria for devolution of funds from the Centre to incentivize states to engage in afforestation activities. This is expected to increase in carbon sinks
- A 33-35% reduction in emission targets is not an unattainable one. But it requires persistent efforts from both the global community and the Indian government.
- The Paris agreement will become operational post 2020 after the retirement of Kyoto protocol. Till then, India can use the intervening years to frame the rules and create the institutions that will govern the Paris Agreement.